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Alberta, Canada

DS

SWOT Analysis

Strategic position assessment for Premier Danielle Smith

Threat Level: HIGH
Score: 87/100

UCP Support

50%

+13 pts over NDP

Personal Approval

38%

-6 pts since May 2025

Leadership Review

91.5%

Exceptionally strong

Budget Deficit

$6.4B

Potential $10B+

Approval-Partisan Gap Analysis

50%

UCP Support

38%

Personal Approval

12pt

Gap

Strategic Vulnerability

STRENGTHS

UCP Support Momentum
Sustainability: Medium-High| Electoral
Leadership Review (91.5%)
Very High
Sustainability: High| Internal
Majority Government
Very High
Sustainability: High| Institutional
Canada-Alberta Energy MOU
Very High
Sustainability: Medium| Policy
Healthcare Reform
Sustainability: Medium| Policy
US Relationships (Trump)
Sustainability: Medium| International
Federal Conservative Alignment
Sustainability: High| Political
Fundraising Capacity
Sustainability: High| Financial
Media Presence
Sustainability: Medium| Communication
National Profile (Newsmaker of Year)
Sustainability: Medium| Reputation

WEAKNESSES

Personal Approval (38%)
High
Recovery: Challenging| Popularity
Approval-Partisan Gap (12pts)
High
Recovery: Moderate| Popularity
Recall Petitions (26 active)
Critical
Recovery: Ongoing| Political
Separatist Association
Critical
Recovery: Challenging| Political
Healthcare Criticism
High
Recovery: Moderate| Policy
Education Controversies
High
Recovery: Moderate| Policy
Notwithstanding Clause Overuse
High
Recovery: Moderate| Governance
Budget Deficit ($6.4B)
Critical
Recovery: Long-term| Financial
Messaging Inconsistency
Medium
Recovery: Moderate| Communication
Foreign Interference Perception
High
Recovery: Challenging| International

OPPORTUNITIES

Polling Momentum
High
| Electoral
50%
Tariff Defense Positioning
High
| Economic
40%
Pipeline Implementation
High
| Economic
25%
Conservative Alignment
Medium-High
| Political
50%
NDP Leadership Vacuum
Medium
| Opposition
60%
Economic Recovery Narrative
Medium
| Economic
50%
Federal Liberal Vulnerability
Medium
| Political
30%
Nuclear Energy Leadership
Medium
| Energy
15%
Tech Sector Growth
Medium
| Economic
40%

THREATS

NDP under Nenshi
Medium-High
| ElectoralProb: HighIncreasing
Separatist Movement (28-30%)
Critical
| PoliticalProb: MediumEscalating
Recall Petitions Success
High
| PoliticalProb: Low-MediumStable
Trump Tariff Impact
High
| EconomicProb: HighOngoing
Budget Crisis ($10B+)
Critical
| FinancialProb: HighWorsening
Caucus Division Risk
High
| InternalProb: MediumIncreasing
Legal Challenges
Medium
| GovernanceProb: HighStable
International Criticism
Medium
| ReputationProb: MediumIncreasing
US Interference Narrative
High
| InternationalProb: MediumEscalating
Economic Downturn
High
| EconomicProb: MediumStable