Electoral Projections
Future scenarios, risk assessment, and forecasting
620 days to election
October 18, 2027
Next Election
46%
UCP Projection
40%
NDP Projection
Medium
Confidence
Scenarios
Best Case
UCP: 52%NDP: 36%Other: 12%
Likely
UCP: 46%NDP: 40%Other: 14%
Worst Case
UCP: 42%NDP: 44%Other: 14%
Key Factors
Economic Conditions
+5
ImprovingHealthcare Performance
-8
DecliningFederal Politics
+3
StableLeadership Review
+4
ImprovingKey Risks
Healthcare Crisis Escalation
High
Medium
Separation Narrative Backlash
High
Low
Recall Petition Success
Medium
Medium