Electoral Projections
Future scenarios, risk assessment, and forecasting
456 days to election
May 2027
Next Election
52%
UCP Projection
38%
NDP Projection
Medium
Confidence
Scenarios
Best Case
UCP: 58%NDP: 32%Other: 10%
Likely
UCP: 52%NDP: 38%Other: 10%
Worst Case
UCP: 45%NDP: 45%Other: 10%
Key Factors
Economic Conditions
+5
ImprovingHealthcare Performance
-8
DecliningFederal Politics
+3
StableLeadership Review
+4
ImprovingKey Risks
Healthcare Crisis Escalation
High
Medium
Separation Narrative Backlash
High
Low
Recall Petition Success
Medium
Medium