Predictive Modeling
Agent 014 - Electoral projections and scenario analysis
Model Calibration
87% accuracy
10,000 iterations
68%
UCP Majority55%
Full Term30%
Early Election35%
Sep Referendum50%
$8B+ Deficit70%
Leadership ReviewParty Vote Share
UCP50%
NDP37%
Alberta Party5%
Liberal4%
Green2%
Separatist2%
Electoral Outcomes
UCP Majority Government
68%
High confidence
NDP Majority Government
12%
Medium confidence
Minority Government
15%
Medium confidence
Tie or Recount
5%
Low confidence
Vote Distribution
UCP
Mean48.5%
Median48.8%
Mode49.2%
95% CI42.0-55.0
Std Dev3.3
NDP
Mean38.2%
Median38%
Mode37.5%
95% CI31.0-45.0
Std Dev3.6
Regional Analysis
Calgary Metro
26 seats
BATTLEGROUND
UCP: 15NDP: 11
Edmonton Metro
20 seats
NDP STRONGHOLD
UCP: 5NDP: 15
Rural Alberta
41 seats
UCP STRONGHOLD
UCP: 32NDP: 9
Key Predictions Summary
UCP Majority in 2027
68%
Smith Completes Full Term
55%
Early Election in 2026
30%
Separation Referendum Before 2027
35%