POLLING INTELLIGENCE
Alberta voting intention and electoral forecasting
UCP LEAD: +13
UCP Support
50%
+6 since Oct 2025
NDP Support
37%
-2 since Oct 2025
Smith Approval
46%
Stable within 44-48% range
Majority Probability
81-85%
High confidence projection
Current Poll Results (January 2026)
Latest polling data from multiple sources
| Pollster | Date | Sample | UCP | NDP | Lead | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leger | Jan 23-26, 2026 | 1,001 | 50% | 37% | +13 | 95% |
| Liaison Strategies | Jan 7-11, 2026 | 1,000 | 46% | 44% | +2 | 88% |
| Leger | Dec 20, 2025 | 1,045 | 49% | 42% | +7 | 95% |
| Angus Reid | Nov 28, 2025 | 100 | 48% | 45% | +3 | 65% |
| Leger | Oct 11, 2025 | 1,045 | 44% | 39% | +5 | 95% |
| Cardinal Research | Sep 19, 2025 | 2,626 | 43% | 36% | +7 | 85% |
Weighted Average
UCP49.2%
NDP36.8%
Others14.0%
Polling Variance
UCP Range
46-52%
NDP Range
35-42%
Margin of Error
+/- 3.1%
Effective Sample
4,500