Voter Intelligence
Agent 009 - Comprehensive voter demographics and behavioral analysis
13% Undecided
50%
UCP Support
Rising
37%
NDP Support
Slight decline
46%
Smith Approval
Net: +4%
18%
Swing Voters
High vulnerability
59.8%
2023 Turnout
-11.3 pts from 2019
Regional Breakdown
Rural Alberta
35% of electorate
UCP STRONGHOLD
UCP: 54%Turnout: 65%NDP: 36%
Calgary
32% of electorate
BATTLEGROUND
UCP: 48%Turnout: 58%NDP: 43%
Edmonton
28% of electorate
NDP FORTRESS
UCP: 29%Turnout: 62%NDP: 60%
Leadership Comparison
Danielle Smith
UCP
+4
Naheed Nenshi
NDP
-3
John Roggeveen
Liberal
+13
Top Issues
Healthcare System78% importance
UCP Approval: 42%
Housing Affordability65% importance
UCP Approval: 48%
Economic Management68% importance
UCP Approval: 68%
Energy Sector72% importance
UCP Approval: 78%
Tax Policy65% importance
UCP Approval: 72%
Turnout Analysis
2015
57%
2019
71.1%
2023
59.8%
2025
69.9%
Separatism Sentiment
Hardline Separatists16%
Would Consider Independence28%
Oppose Independence56%